OpenAI recently released a projection forecasting $125 billion in revenue by 2029. AI agent services and channel revenue are expected to be the primary drivers. AI agent revenue is projected to reach nearly a quarter of the total, at approximately $29 billion, while channel revenue is anticipated to reach $25 billion.

OpenAI

Image Source Note: Image generated by AI, licensed through Midjourney.

Following the success of ChatGPT, OpenAI's revenue reached $3.7 billion in 2023, a nearly fourfold increase year-over-year. Currently, the company boasts over 500 million weekly active users, a significant jump from 300 million at the end of last year. Notably, OpenAI projects that AI agent sales will surpass ChatGPT revenue by 2029, indicating rapid expansion in the AI agent market.

OpenAI's AI agent products are priced variably, with monthly subscriptions ranging from $2,000 for high-earning knowledge workers to $20,000 for doctoral-level research products. This positions OpenAI's revenue on par with industry giants like Nvidia and Meta.

Beyond AI agents, OpenAI is exploring diversified revenue streams. While CEO Sam Altman remains cautious about traditional advertising, he mentioned the possibility of charging referral fees for sales initiated through ChatGPT or AI agents. Furthermore, OpenAI anticipates $25 billion in revenue from free users and other products by 2029, representing about one-fifth of the total.

Regarding cost control, OpenAI projects approximately $46 billion in cash burn over the next four years for model training and operational expenses. However, the company expects to achieve positive cash flow by 2029, generating nearly $12 billion in cash that year. The growth in inference costs will gradually slow over the next five years, boosting profit margins; the gross profit margin is projected to increase from 40% last year to nearly 70%.

OpenAI anticipates significant user growth, reaching 3 billion monthly active users, 2 billion weekly active users, and 900 million daily active users by 2030. These projections have led investors like SoftBank to inject $40 billion in new capital into OpenAI at a $260 billion valuation.

Key Highlights:

🌟 OpenAI projects $125 billion in revenue by 2029, with AI agent services as the main growth driver.

📈 2023 revenue reached $3.7 billion, with over 500 million weekly active users, demonstrating significant growth.

💰 Positive cash flow is expected within the next four years, with gross profit margins rising to nearly 70%.