According to the latest data released by RUNTO Technology, in the first three quarters of 2025, the Chinese smart speaker market delivered an impressive performance: total sales have already reached 10.54 million units, and the annual sales are expected to reach 14.2 million units. However, beneath this wave of growth, a key signal is prompting the industry to reflect — the penetration rate of smart speakers with AI large models is only 33%, meaning that nearly 70% of devices are still limited to basic voice interaction, and true "intelligence" has not yet been fully realized.
"Super Xiaoai" Sparks the High-End Market, Large Models Become New Selling Points
This year, Xiaomi's first large model smart speaker, "Super Xiaoai," quickly became popular after its launch, becoming a phenomenon in the high-end market. It can understand complex semantics, perform multi-turn context conversations, and deeply integrate with the Mi Home ecosystem to execute advanced commands such as "turn on the living room lights and dim them to 30%." This breakthrough shows the market that when AI large models are deeply integrated with home scenarios, smart speakers are evolving from "voice remote controls" into family AI hubs.
Research institutions point out that AI large models show significant advantages in scenarios such as smart home control, knowledge Q&A, and content generation, and will become the core driver of high-end product sales. Especially among young families and tech early adopters, speakers with context understanding, personalized recommendations, and even emotional interaction capabilities are gradually building differentiated competitiveness.
Behind 14.2 Million Units: There is Still a Big Gap in Intelligence
Although the annual sales forecast is optimistic, the 33% penetration rate of large models also reveals industry bottlenecks. Most current products still rely on cloud-based keyword matching, lacking local reasoning capabilities and scenario-adaptive logic, leading to a lack of "smart" user experience. Experts in the industry believe that the future competition focus will shift from hardware specifications to scenario customization and emotional service.
For example, features such as health reminders and voice companionship for the elderly, educational interaction and behavioral guidance for children, and emotion recognition and emergency response for single individuals will become key directions for product innovation in the next stage. These "soft intelligence" not only enhance user engagement but also truly define the value boundaries of "smart speakers."
The Second Half of the AI Speaker: From Connecting Devices to Understanding People
The smart speaker market has moved beyond its wild growth phase and entered a refined stage centered on user experience. While technological iteration is important, it is more critical to understand real user needs — people no longer want just a talking box, but a family partner that understands life, empathizes, and is trustworthy.
As large models become lighter, edge-side inference capabilities improve, and multimodal interaction matures, AI speakers are expected to see a turning point in penetration rate in 2026. The current 33% may be the most promising setup before the upcoming explosion.
