According to newly disclosed internal documents, OpenAI is expected to face a negative free cash flow of up to $9 billion in the future — a figure that not only challenges industry perceptions but also places this globally most-watched AI company at the sharp contradiction between "technological leadership and financial sustainability."
Negative Cash Flow Alert: Spending Far Outpaces Revenue Growth
A negative free cash flow means that after paying all operating expenses and capital expenditures, OpenAI's net cash outflow reaches as high as $9 billion. This huge gap mainly stems from three pressures:
Aggressive Infrastructure Expansion: To support GPT-5, Sora, and the AI agent ecosystem, the company continues to invest heavily in GPU clusters and data centers;
Intensifying Talent War: Top AI researchers' annual salaries generally exceed one million dollars, and team size is rapidly expanding;
Free Product Strategy: Although ChatGPT has 800 million weekly active users, the high proportion of the free version means commercial monetization is still in its early stages.
In comparison, its main competitor Anthropic has shown stronger financial discipline. By focusing on enterprise B2B services, high-margin API pricing, and precise cost control, Anthropic not only expects to achieve positive cash flow by 2028, but also recently received a $17 billion valuation in financing, being seen by the market as a "healthier AI investment opportunity."
Technological Glamour vs. Business Reality: OpenAI's Dilemma
OpenAI's dilemma reflects the core contradiction of the entire generative AI industry: technological innovation requires massive investment, but the market has yet to establish a stable profit model. Although its products have defined the AI era, investors are shifting from "technology-only" to "financial sustainability" assessments. A Wall Street analyst said: "No matter how great the model is, it needs cash flow to support it. If OpenAI cannot significantly improve its cash consumption within 2-3 years, it may face strategic retrenchment or be forced to accelerate monetization."
Where Is the Way Out? Commercialization Has Become a Lifeline
Facing pressure, OpenAI is making multi-pronged breakthroughs:
Raising Prices for Enterprise Version of ChatGPT: Recently increased prices for E3/E5 plans, strengthening B2B monetization;
Testing Charging for Sora Video API: Opening high-priced access interfaces to film and advertising companies;
AI Agent Subscription Service: Planning to launch an Agent platform with task-based billing.
However, whether these measures can outpace the speed of cash consumption in the AI arms race remains uncertain.
AIbase believes that OpenAI's $9 billion cash flow warning is not only a warning for itself, but also a wake-up call for the entire AI industry — when the bubble fades, only those who drive both technology and business will be able to navigate through the cycle. In the current context where competitors like Anthropic, Google, and Meta are accelerating profitability, OpenAI must prove that it can not only create intelligence, but also create value. Otherwise, the technology myth will eventually be shattered by financial reality.
