According to the Wall Street Journal, although Apple is considered to be behind its competitors in developing its own large models, the company is expected to generate over $1 billion in AI-related revenue by 2026, thanks to its dominant device ecosystem.
Apple doesn't need to have the strongest AI model; as long as it has the iPhone in users' hands, it can profit through app store commissions:
ChatGPT is the biggest money maker: Approximately 75% of the commission revenue from generative AI apps comes from OpenAI's ChatGPT, followed by Elon Musk's Grok, which accounts for about 5%.
Increasing revenue stream: Data shows that generative AI apps have paid nearly $900 million in fees to Apple in 2025. Although there has been a slight decline due to fluctuations in downloads, the overall trend remains strong.
High-margin services: This revenue is included in Apple's service business, which grows faster and has higher profit margins than hardware sales, attracting investors' attention.
Unique AI Strategy: Avoiding the Computing Power Race
Unlike Microsoft and Google, which invest billions of dollars in building data centers, Apple has taken a more "lightweight" approach:
Prioritizing Edge AI: Utilizing its self-developed chips and user personal data, Apple prioritizes AI features on devices, emphasizing privacy protection.
Distribution Channel Advantage: No matter how advanced each chatbot may be, the iPhone remains their core channel to reach consumers worldwide.
Apple's current situation proves that "controlling the entry point" often holds more certainty than "controlling the algorithm" in the AI supply chain. Even though Siri still lags technologically, as long as the App Store subscription mechanism exists, Apple can continue to earn revenue from competitors' technological advancements.
This financial forecast not only provides a boost to Apple's service business but also makes people re-examine its unique advantages in the long-term competition in artificial intelligence.
