Tammy Carvey, a 45-year-old woman from Michigan, USA, bought a Powerball lottery ticket using numbers generated by ChatGPT and won $100,000 in the draw on September 6. This case has attracted attention on social media, but lottery experts remind that it is a normal random probability event, unrelated to the way the numbers were generated.
According to information from the Michigan Lottery, Carvey matched four white balls and the red ball, originally corresponding to a $50,000 prize. Because she selected the "Power Play" option when purchasing the ticket, and the multiplier for this draw was 2 times, the prize doubled to $100,000. Carvey said that when the Powerball jackpot accumulated over $1 billion, she asked ChatGPT to generate a set of numbers and purchased the ticket online.
Carvey has already claimed her prize at the Michigan Lottery, and plans to use it to pay off her mortgage. In an interview, she described the surprise of discovering her win, initially thinking she had won $50,000, but upon logging into her account, she realized the "Power Play" feature was activated, and the actual prize was $100,000.
From the perspective of lottery principles, this event is essentially a normal result of random probability. The probability of winning the Powerball lottery is fixed by mathematical rules, regardless of the source of the numbers. Whether the numbers are manually chosen, randomly selected by the system, or generated by AI, the probability of winning for each set of numbers is exactly the same. ChatGPT, as a language model, generates number sequences that are random outputs or based on statistical distributions from its training data, not based on analysis or prediction of lottery patterns.
The basic principles of lottery statistics show that any method of generating numbers cannot change the randomness of the lottery. The probability of winning for each set of numbers in every draw is independent and equal, unaffected by historical results or the generation method. Carvey's win is a natural probability event among many lottery players, and does not indicate that AI has the ability to increase the chances of winning.
The Powerball lottery is sold in 45 states in the United States, the District of Columbia, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico, with a ticket price of $2. The "Power Play" feature costs an additional $1 and can multiply non-jackpot prizes by 2 to 10 times, with the exact multiplier determined randomly at the time of the draw. This mechanism increases the variability of smaller prizes, but does not change the probability of winning itself.
Such news stories can create misleading associations, suggesting that AI can help increase the chances of winning. In reality, the lottery is a typical negative expectation game, where long-term participation results in a mathematical loss. Attributing individual winning cases to a specific method of generating numbers is an example of "survivor bias"—cases where the same method was used without winning are not reported.
From a technical perspective, large language models like ChatGPT do not have the capability to access historical lottery data, analyze drawing patterns, or predict future results. When users ask ChatGPT to "predict" lottery numbers, the model usually reminds that lottery results are random and unpredictable, and may generate a set of random numbers for entertainment purposes. These numbers are no different in terms of probability from numbers chosen randomly by humans or by a random number generator.
The value of this event lies mainly in its entertainment and discussion appeal, but it may reinforce public misunderstandings about AI capabilities and unrealistic expectations about the possibility of winning the lottery. As an entertainment activity, the lottery should be participated in rationally. Any method of generating numbers—whether AI, algorithms, "expert recommendations," or personal intuition—will not change its inherent randomness and negative expectation characteristics.
