NVIDIA will unveil its second-quarter results on the 26th local time, closing this round of tech earnings season. As the most closely watched chip company in the AI boom, its performance has long influenced the entire sector's sentiment. However, in the past four quarters, even if it exceeded expectations, its stock price fell by an average of about 5% within 30 days. This time, the environment is more sensitive—funds are pulling out from chip and storage stocks that have seen huge gains, and the market is questioning how long the infrastructure expansion can last.
Rubin and the financing platform become key topics in the conference call
Major banks generally remain optimistic but also point out concerns. JPMorgan expects revenue of around $94 to $95 billion, up 15% quarter-over-quarter, and says its valuation is clearly below historical norms; Goldman Sachs focuses on the $500 billion customer financing platform and the accelerated shipment of Rubin; Bank of America maintains its industry preference but warns of the risks of fully betting on AI, with its highlighted $105 billion OpenAI deal serving as a reflection.
Jefferies expects Rubin to contribute over 40% of revenue by the end of this fiscal year, while UBS believes the rising prices of memory will ultimately benefit NVIDIA, implying earnings per share could exceed $15 by 2027. Five institutions have given "buy" or "overweight" ratings, with target prices suggesting a potential increase of 31% to 64% from the current price. However, what investors are really watching for in the conference call are several key issues: the company’s position relative to competitors, the arrangement for financing guarantees, the direction of its China business, and the impact of reduced HBM specifications on the Rubin platform.
Energy supply is an unavoidable variable. The growth rate of AI chip demand has already surpassed the capacity of power grids, which may slow down deployment. Before AI actually generates revenue and cloud companies see clear returns on investment, this report must prove growth while calming market concerns about cycle financing and memory costs—whether NVIDIA can continue to lead depends not on the numbers themselves, but on whether its narrative can hold steady.
